Nigel Farage is projected to become the next prime minister, according to a YouGov seat-by-seat poll that highlights the collapse of Conservative support. The YouGov MRP model, which analysed responses from 13,000 people over three weeks, indicates that if an election were held tomorrow, the outcome would be a hung parliament, with Reform UK securing 311 of the 650 seats, just 15 short of the 326 needed for a majority.

‍

‍

It remains unclear as to why there has been a shift in the political climate, however, it comes at a time when tensions surrounding illegal immigration policies in the UK are at an all-time high. A series of anti-immigration protests erupted over the summer after an immigrant who had been charged for assaulting a teenage girl was accommodated in an Epping hotel. This then prompted the ‘Raise The Colours’ grassroots campaign, which has seen floods of  St George and Union Jack flags erected across the country.

‍

This was then followed by Tommy Robinson’s ‘Unite The Kingdom’ London rally just weeks ago, which saw over 110,000 participants march the streets of London in protest of illegal immigration. On top of this, Reform UK recently confirmed plans to scrap indefinite leave to remain for legal UK migrants, should they be voted into power.

‍

‍

Reform UK has strengthened since YouGov’s last MRP in June, when it was 55 seats away from a majority. This projection points to 306 additional Reform seats, a surge from their present total of five, marking the largest increase in seats in British electoral history. The forecast for Great Britain allocates Reform UK 311 seats, Labour 144, the Liberal Democrats 78, the Conservatives 45, the SNP 37 and the Greens seven, with Plaid Cymru winning six and three seats going to left-wing rivals. Northern Irish constituencies are not included.

‍

Barely one year after Keir Starmer’s landslide victory, these figures would slash Labour’s presence to about a third of their seats, down from 411 at the last election. That outcome would be worse than Labour’s 2019 showing during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, when the party won 202 seats, and it would represent their weakest tally since 1931.

‍

‍

More than a third of Labour’s remaining MPs would represent London, leaving them more dependent on the capital than any other major British party on a specific region. High-profile losses would include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner. The Conservatives would be hit even harder, facing near-annihilation. They would lose two-thirds of the 121 seats won last year, their worst modern result, falling to 45.

‍

That would demote the Tories to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, the first time they have failed to be one of the two largest parties. The party would be eradicated in Wales and the South West, once strongholds as recently as 2015, and left with only six northern seats and one in Scotland. Possible high-profile losses include Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Mel Stride. Nearly 60% of their current frontbench could be lost.

‍

‍

The poll suggests national vote shares of 27% for Reform UK, 21% for Labour, 17% for the Conservatives, 15% for the Lib Dems, 11% for the Greens, 3% for the SNP and 1% for Plaid. Other recent, smaller YouGov polls have put Reform UK even higher. The MRP projection underlines Labour’s vulnerability to Reform UK. Three-quarters of Reform UK’s projected gains would be from Labour, while Labour would lose more than half its seats directly to Reform. The North East would be Reform’s strongest base, winning 21 of 27 seats, followed by the East Midlands and Wales. Their weakest showings would be in London, with six out of 75, and Scotland, with five out of 57.

‍

‍

Scotland would see the SNP rebound, gaining 28 seats to reach 37, while Labour would fall to nine. This would make it unlikely for Scottish Labour to take control of Holyrood in next year’s elections. In Wales, Reform would win 23 seats, compared with Plaid’s six and Labour’s three, raising the prospect of Labour losing control of the Welsh Senedd in May.

‍

The YouGov poll asked Great Britain voters how they would cast their ballots if an election were held tomorrow, although one is not expected for three to four years. MRP projections allow for considerable uncertainty. The core projection is Reform UK on 311 seats, though the range could extend as high as 342, which would be a majority, or as low as 271. The Conservatives could fall to 28 seats or rise to 68, while Labour could range from 118 to 185.

‍